Macro Timeline Update 5926
Intro:
Bitcoin’s March 28 bottom call continues delivering — officially smashed the $80k target and now grinding higher near $81k with strong momentum, volume confirmation, and improving technicals. Cycle bros, you okay? Healthy consolidation or next leg higher?
Domestic & global liquidity projections fully refreshed — post-tax TGA dynamics, the accelerating IEEPA tariff refund wave (peaking July–September), updated TGA path, and fresh global liquidity charts all pointing to supportive conditions through at least August.
Treasury QRA deep dive + forward guidance: unchanged coupon sizes, bill auction cadence, buyback adjustments, and the heavy July–August IEEPA liquidity injection now locked in.
Fed transition underway: Warsh confirmation moving fast (Senate Banking vote Wednesday) — our independent outlook for June/July/September moves plus why Treasury policy and the MOVE index drivers.
Forward Guidance: equity internals snapshot, global liquidity trends, and a new Monetary Outlook on Deutsche Bank’s “Return of History” thesis — structural de-dollarization, gold’s resurgence, and the powerful long-term tailwind for Bitcoin.
Newsletter portfolio updates (Seeking Alpha quants + AI model) and new tickers.
